A prediction rule for severe adverse events in all inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia: a multicenter observational study.

BACKGROUND: Prediction of inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) at high risk for severe adverse events (SAEs) requiring higher-intensity treatment is critical. However, evidence regarding prediction rules applicable to all patients with CAP including those with healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP) is limited. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a new prediction system for SAEs in inpatients with CAP. METHODS: Logistic regression analysis was performed in 1334 inpatients of a prospective multicenter study to develop a multivariate model predicting SAEs (death, requirement of mechanical ventilation, and vasopressor support within 30 days after diagnosis). The developed ALL-COP-SCORE rule based on the multivariate model was validated in 643 inpatients in another prospective multicenter study. RESULTS: The ALL-COP SCORE rule included albumin (< 2 g/dL, 2 points; 2-3 g/dL, 1 point), white blood cell (< 4000 cells/µL, 3 points), chronic lung disease (1 point), confusion (2 points), PaO2/FIO2 ratio (< 200 mmHg, 3 points; 200-300 mmHg, 1 point), potassium (≥ 5.0 mEq/L, 2 points), arterial pH (< 7.35, 2 points), systolic blood pressure (< 90 mmHg, 2 points), PaCO2 (> 45 mmHg, 2 points), HCO3- (< 20 mmol/L, 1 point), respiratory rate (≥ 30 breaths/min, 1 point), pleural effusion (1 point), and extent of chest radiographical infiltration in unilateral lung (> 2/3, 2 points; 1/2-2/3, 1 point). Patients with 4-5, 6-7, and ≥ 8 points had 17%, 35%, and 52% increase in the probability of SAEs, respectively, whereas the probability of SAEs was 3% in patients with ≤ 3 points. The ALL-COP SCORE rule exhibited a higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.85) compared with the other predictive models, and an ALL-COP SCORE threshold of ≥ 4 points exhibited 92% sensitivity and 60% specificity. CONCLUSIONS: ALL-COP SCORE rule can be useful to predict SAEs and aid in decision-making on treatment intensity for all inpatients with CAP including those with HCAP. Higher-intensity treatment should be considered in patients with CAP and an ALL-COP SCORE threshold of ≥ 4 points. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was registered with the University Medical Information Network in Japan, registration numbers UMIN000003306 and UMIN000009837.

Four Cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transferred from a Cruise Ship.

An outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that began in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly to many countries. We herein report four cases of COVID-19 confirmed in Japan among passengers of the cruise ship Diamond Princess and describe the clinical features, clinical course, and progression of chest computed tomographic images, chest radiographs, and treatment. Although these four patients had symptoms that included a fever, malaise, runny nose, and cough, one patient had no symptoms on admission. Two of the four patients needed mechanical ventilation due to respiratory deterioration. One of the patients who required mechanical ventilation was transferred to a higher-level medical institution. Except for that patient, the other three patients were able to return home under their own power. Every patient took lopinavir/ritonavir, which was considered the most effective treatment at the time. We used it after receiving approval from the ethics committee in our hospital. In this case report, we emphasize that some patients need to be carefully monitored, even if their respiratory condition is stable at the initial presentation, as their respiratory status may deteriorate rapidly within a few days after oxygen administration begins.

SARS-CoV-2 Screening Test for Japanese Returnees From Wuhan, China, January 2020.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was found to be the causative microorganism of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which started to spread in Wuhan, China. This study was to evaluate the effectiveness of questionnaire, symptoms-based screening, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) screening of returnees from COVID-19-endemic areas on a chartered flight, to examine the proportion of infected persons and the proportion of asymptomatic persons among infected persons who returned from Wuhan. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was done in 7 tertiary medical institutions in Japan. A total of 566 Japanese who returned from Wuhan participated in the study. RESULTS: Overall, 11 of the 566 passengers had a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR result for pharyngeal swabs and 6 were asymptomatic. Only fever differed between SARS-CoV-2-positive and -negative individuals (P < .043). Six of the 11 PCR-positive individuals were asymptomatic; 4 remained positive on day 10, and 1 asymptomatic person tested positive up to day 27. Two of the 11 were negative on the first PCR test and positive on the second. CONCLUSIONS: Our results will be important insights on screening returnees from locked-down cities, as well as providing important data on the proportion of asymptomatic individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2. A 13-day observation period and a second round of PCR may be effective to screen patients, including asymptomatic infections.